The Islamic holy month of Ramadan began this week, just as the initial idyllic phase of the "Arab Spring" has begun to gradually change into something more complicated and less optimistic.
What will this Arab Summer bring? Unfortunately, Ramadan, a time of intense spiritual contemplation, has gotten off to an uneven start in many countries in North Africa and the Middle East.
Fasting is a key part of Islamic religious practice, and during Ramadan food and drink is prohibited between dusk and dawn. This year, Ramadan falls during the hottest months of summer in the Northern Hemisphere, when days are at their longest. This is a recurring consequence of Ramadan being a lunar month, which drifts steadily and relentlessly backward during the solar calendar.
As the fasting begins, violence and open conflict are prominent across the region. An Islamic militant group in Somalia has launched a military offensive despite a growing famine in the country. In Yemen, conflicts between the government and the opposition in this potential failed state continue unabated. Despite five months of growing demonstrations, the Syrian government has escalated its effective, horrifying, assault on protesters. Meanwhile, the Egyptian army, previously the guarantors of stability when the Hosni Mubarak government was removed, entered Tahrir Square in Cairo, birthplace of the Arab Spring, to violently disburse a peaceful protest drawing attention to the slow pace of change.
Typically during Ramadan, extravagant nighttime celebrations are scheduled for iftar, after sundown. Unfortunately, with rising food prices, on top of ongoing political instability in many Muslim countries, the inability to break the fast with evening food means many Muslims living in abject poverty, in countries like Somalia, will be unable to participate in the Ramadan practice. For them, fasting has been a day-to-day practice, month after month. Somalia is believed to have the highest rate of malnutrition in the world.
In Yemen, government forces continue to seek out and eliminate al-Qaida militants, using airstrikes. President Ali Abdullah Saleh remains hospitalized in Saudi Arabia from wounds suffered during a June bomb attack, but firm resistance to opposition forces has continued in his absence.
Meanwhile, Western governments remain unable to fashion an appropriate diplomatic response to the continued unrest in Syria, long-standing ally of Iran. The Syrian demonstrators, who have been struggling to earn a place on the international diplomatic agenda, now realize that they are on their own. U.N. Security Council resolutions have yet to be adopted condemning the bloodshed. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has suffered little more than occasional, half-hearted condemnation from Western leaders, and attempts to isolate him within the international community have been ineffective.
Egypt is the "showcase" country in this region, and how the Egyptians transition out of the Arab Spring will have a clear and demonstrable impact on other countries. Former President Mubarak, 83, lying ashen-faced on a hospital bed inside a metal defendants' cage, went on trial this week in Egypt on charges involving the killing of protesters and abuse of power. The world will be watching to see whether the Egyptian judiciary is able to deliver justice, or simply retribution. Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood is building political momentum within the country, organizing rallies and charitable events during the holy month.
On Monday, President Barack Obama issued his own personal Ramadan greetings to Muslims around the world, stressing the need for deep reflection and sacrifice. Noble sentiments, indeed. In prior policy statements and news conferences, Obama has given verbal support to democratic change in the region, but simple rhetoric will accomplish very little on its own.
His administration continues to be challenged and perplexed by the political upheaval across the Middle East and North Africa. America's influence in the region is real, but limited. Most importantly, our influence varies greatly from country to country. The U.S. government must be prepared to evaluate the circumstances on the ground in each country, without reflexive resort to hollow salutations and empty gestures.
For example, the situation unraveling in Syria is much more geopolitically important than, by contrast, whether Moammar Gadhafi and his forces maintain power in Libya. However, the administration remains chronically uncertain about Shia-controlled, Sunni-majority Syria and frustratingly unable to build a working coalition with key neighbors, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
As a result, the risk of widespread sectarian violence breaking out across the region, effectively integrating and escalating these separate conflicts into a wider Shia/Sunni confrontation, continues to grow.
Unfortunately, this Arab Summer will also be one where rising unemployment, decreasing economic growth and skyrocketing food prices will fuel popular unrest. The relative prosperity of 2010 has passed. Real personal suffering is now forcing demonstrators into the streets.
These twin drivers of sectarian strife and economic disenfranchisement pose a daunting challenge to the region, and to the wider world.
In this time of conflict and uncertainty, hopefully the spirit of Islamic unity, a crucial element of Ramadan, will allow both demonstrators and government supporters to identify and agree the best path to follow to attain greater peace, stability and prosperity in the region.
Otherwise, this Arab Summer will be very long and very troubling.