A new crown prince has been designated in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the only country in the world that lists its ruling family as part of its name. Saudi Arabia is that portion of the Arabian Peninsula that has belonged to the House of Saud since 1932, and that clan has selected Nayef bin Abdul Aziz as heir to the throne, held by King Abdullah.
The previous crown prince, Sultan bin Abdel Aziz, died last month while in the United States receiving medical treatment. King Abdullah, 87, has been ill, so questions of succession are particularly important to the country and its allies.
Prince Nayef, about 77, who has spent over three decades in the Saudi government as interior minister, has close ties to conservative clerics. As a result, some moderate Saudis are concerned that his opposition to recent attempts at social reform will mean that any further liberalization will be stalled during his reign.
Prince Nayef's concerns over stability and security may mean that he approaches reform more pragmatically. For example, he has stated he will maintain the current ban on women driving in his country for as long as he lives.
As the winds of change blow softly against reform in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, elsewhere in North Africa and the Middle East recent demonstrations and upheavals have raised hopes for the possibility of more substantial changes. But even in Tunisia, birthplace of the Arab Spring, it remains unclear what direction the new government will take the country.
Nine months have passed since a street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, burnt himself to death in front of a government building in the southern Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid to protest police corruption. Last week his country went to the polls to determine new political leaders for the first time since President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was driven from office in January.
Initial tallies indicate that Ennahda, an Islamic party outlawed under President Ben Ali, will be the largest party in the 217-seat Constituent Assembly, which now has one year to draft a new constitution. Lacking an outright majority, Ennahda, or "Renaissance," will need to form a coalition to gain control of the Assembly and drive the constitutional agenda.
To date, Tunisia has been one of the more secular countries in the region, with high literacy rates, a ban on polygamy and legalized abortions. Whether the rights of women will continue to thrive and expand under the new government remains to be seen.
Importantly, though, Bouazizi's concerns were about corruption so pernicious and widespread that it had denied him the ability to earn a living. He was not seeking greater democratic participation or agitating for political change. So it is not surprising that after the protests and revolutions inspired by his self-immolation, the Tunisian election results were not a validation of Western-style political values and priorities. Instead, practical concerns over corruption and unemployment remain paramount.
Can moderate Islam become a meaningful and effective force in the governments and public lives of the Arab Spring countries?
Ennahda's supporters claim it is a moderate political party that included on its candidates list professional women who did not wear the veil. To the extent that Ennahda, and other parties like it, can demonstrate a willingness to compromise with non-Islamist parties and protect the rights of women and religious minorities in their countries, then more extremist Islamist groups may be denied the base of disgruntled and alienated youths on which they build their organizations.
The priorities for many Tunisians and Saudis are the same as those of people across North Africa and the Middle East, as well as around the world – stability, prosperity and the ability to live a dignified life.
Change is sometimes for the better, but often it can be for the worse. This is one of the most frustrating aspects of witnessing social upheaval. Although so often men and women have put their lives on the line in the hopes of achieving meaningful and lasting changes in their countries, communities and lives, there can never be any real guarantee that the eventual new order will be an improvement on what they had before.
In Saudi Arabia, we can see a reluctance to spread political participation across the whole of society too rapidly. In Tunisia, we can see first steps towards a genuinely representative government, which incorporates religious parties, but opens up the possibility that religious extremists might gain control of power before adequate safeguards to individual rights and liberties are secured.
In neither country are simplistic notions of starting afresh in a new world, uncontaminated by the past, being lobbed about. Instead, the unbridled enthusiasm of the Arab Spring will need to be converted into discrete, incremental and positive change in countries like Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.
Only then, perhaps, will the citizens of more reluctant and reactionary countries like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen be able to point to real-world success stories and build the consensus needed to make the necessary changes in their homelands.