President Barack Obama is using his trip Down Under this week to attempt to further American economic and security interests in a region that will continue to be a top diplomatic priority for the next several decades.
As part of its efforts to effectively contain potential Chinese influence and expansion in Southeast Asia, the Obama administration is establishing a permanent military presence in Australia. To date, the U.S. presence has been primarily limited to the Pine Gap surveillance station located near Alice Spring, in the country's desolate desert heartland.
U.S. personnel – 2,500 Marines, eventually – could be stationed either in Darwin, on the north coast, or in Perth, on the west coast. U.S. forces and hardware permanently based in Australia would significant decrease the response time necessary should their deployment be required on short notice. Initially, the U.S. would make use of Australian air fields, naval facilities and bases.
As an indication of the strategic importance of Australia in Washington, Obama follows in the footsteps of his four immediate predecessors in visiting this Southern Hemisphere ally. Prior to George H.W. Bush's visit, only one other American President, Lyndon B. Johnson, managed to make the long trip.
The left-leaning Labor Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, supports the increased U.S. military commitment to her country in light of China's increasing acquisition of modern, long-range missiles and submarines. In addition, Obama enjoys huge popularity among Australians, and Gillard may hope to benefit from an Obama bump in her own approval ratings.
A permanent military presence in Australia would give the U.S. ready access to both the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, and complement existing U.S. bases in Japan and Guam, which have been the foundation of American deployment in the Pacific Ocean since the end of the World War II.
Despite America's increasing economics dependence on China, the Obama administration correctly realizes that it is essential to main stability in the region. Chinese dominance easily could be established in an Asia without an American presence. In addition to Australia, the U.S. is also making arrangements with Singapore and Vietnam to allow U.S. ships to have access to their ports and facilities.
Whether Australia will suffer any backlash for so strongly supporting China's arch rival remains to be seen. China has been increasingly assertive, which has increased uncertainty and anxiety among its smaller neighbors.
Obama's twice-postponed Australian trip is part of a wider Asian diplomatic push. At the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit held this past week in his native Hawaii, the president announced plans for a new trans-Pacific free-trade zone that would cover nine countries, including Australia, and over 500 million consumers. If completed, the new trade zone would eliminate tariffs and introduce uniform patent and copyright laws among members. Current plans presume that at least 12 months will be needed to negotiate the treaties and agree to the fine print.
Although not formerly part of APEC, the new trade zone would be open to other nations, and Japan has already publicly expressed interest in joining. Should Japan join, the zone – which would also include Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam – would account for one-third of global gross domestic product.
President Obama has a re-election campaign ahead of him. As he remains dogged by criticism over the sorry state of the U.S. economy and the lack of new jobs, it will be important for him to be able to point to as many different initiatives as possible in the months leading up to Election Day to show reluctant voters that there is some possibility of genuine economic growth in the near future. Whether these initiatives have actually had a real impact is a secondary concern. Otherwise, he will be particularly vulnerable to claims that his symbolic legislative triumphs early in his term were not followed up by substantive improvements to the economy.
China has, perhaps unsurprisingly, expressed doubts over the feasibility of such an "over-ambitious" plan. Given the Obama administration's express desire to link membership in the trade zone to countries with high labor and environmental standards, it is not likely that room could be made at the table for China. As a result, the proposed trade zone can be seen as a battleground for influence in the Pacific. In recent years, China has been very effective in inking trade pacts with smaller countries in the region, so the trade zone represents an American attempt to keep the region in play.
Who is best positioned to win the hearts and minds of leaders and citizens across the Asia Pacific region?
America's role as a Pacific power will be just as important this century as its role as an Atlantic power was during the previous century.
Nothing about the proposed trade zone or the Australia military deployments will impact the lingering U.S.-China disputes over trade imbalances and currency manipulation. These questions will need to be fully and finally addressed in their own time, as will concerns over China's domestic political situation.
In the meantime, America will need to continue to invest significant time and energy in maintaining economic and military stability in the Asia Pacific region, in order to achieve the much-needed growth and security at home.