The naval gunfire that erupted in the Persian Gulf this week may have long-term consequences for President Barack Obama's more-assertive military strategy in the region. Off the coast of Dubai, the USNS Rappahannock opened fire on what local authorities described as a small fishing boat. An Indian man aboard the boat was killed; and three other men, all Indian, wounded.
The Persian Gulf is one of the busiest waterways in the world and a key transport link for oil. Iran, sitting on the north side of the Gulf, has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, thereby putting a stranglehold on one-fifth of the world's oil shipments, in response to increased opposition to its nuclear development program. In an attempt to check Tehran, Obama recently made the controversial decision to increase the U.S. Navy's presence in the region and, by doing so, take an increasing share of responsibility for policing the Gulf.
The Rappahannock, a fuel supply ship, opened fire with .50-caliber machine guns when the fishing boat failed to respond to warnings to stop approaching. According to established Navy procedures, after several warnings, lethal force was authorized. In the past, small motor boats operated by Iran's Revolutionary Guard have made high-speed passes near American ships. President George W. Bush declared it a "provocative act" in 2008 when five Iranian boats passed by the USS Hopper in a threatening manner.
Fifteen kilometers, less than 10 miles, off the coast from Dubai's port city of Jebel Ali when attacked, the 30-foot fishing boat was equipped with three outboard engines. Dubai is part of the oil rich and strategically important United Arab Emirates, which has been a strong and consistent ally of the United States. American ships and sailors regularly visit the port at Jebel Ali.
An investigation into the attack was announced by the U.S. Fifth Fleet, stationed in nearby Bahrain. Dubai officials are also reportedly investigating the shooting.
As concerns rise over the potential for wider conflict around the Gulf, what should Washington's response be?
The Obama administration this month announced further sanctions on Iran, which would prohibit Iranian oil tankers from docking in many international ports. As a result, Iranian oil distribution could contract as much as 60 percent.
But sanctions are only one part of the picture.
Despite concerns that the US presence could unbalance the region, a further aircraft-carrier strike group, headed by the USS John C. Stennis, has been ordered to the Gulf, four months ahead of schedule. The strike group includes a guided-missile cruiser and four guided-missile destroyers and will join the carrier USS Enterprise. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta had announced the administration's commitment to a "two carrier" strategy in the Gulf days before the fishing boat shooting.
With tensions escalating, it is imperative that President Obama ensure that the situation in the Gulf does not flare into open conflict. The attack on the fishing boat inevitably will further strain emotions.
Meanwhile, the Obama administration also is engaged in a full-blown charm offensive in Israel. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Jerusalem this week, with Secretary Panetta following shortly thereafter. Obama's national security adviser, Tom Donilon conducted a secret visit to Israel days before Secretary Clinton arrived.
Obviously, it is important to ensure that Israel, a long-standing U.S. ally, is receiving the security guarantees it needs to promote U.S. policy in the region. However, some may question whether the charm offensive has more to do with addressing domestic political concerns about November, than with the immediate challenges the U.S. faces in the Gulf, specifically, and the Middle East and North Africa, generally.
Iran is scrambling to adjust its rhetoric to better fit a rapidly changing world in which its position as the world's fifth-largest oil supplier is providing it with fewer and fewer benefits. With domestic reform stifled, Iranians have little choice other than watch their political and religious leaders attempt to threaten and bamboozle the world into allowing it to get its own way, despite the short-term or long-term consequences.
For example, Iranian government officials are repeatedly boasting of the hundreds of technological advancements they are reverse-engineering from Obama's failed RG-170 drone shot down over Iran last year. This bravado at the very least gives Tehran further verbal ammunition to chastise Obama with in an election year.
The Iranian capacity to block the Strait of Hormuz is real, and the U.S. needs to be prepared to address potential developments. However, no matter how real those threats are, President Obama must understand that increasing American presence in this volatile region also raises the temperature.
Incidents like the Rappahannock shooting are unfortunate. More importantly though, American foreign policy in this region must not be undermined by grand gestures made in the months leading up to a frustratingly close re-election campaign.
The president must demonstrate that he has a nuanced and appropriate strategy for ensuring peace and stability in the Gulf, rather than succumbing to a more amorphous need to simply make larger and larger shows of strength, regardless of their effectiveness or consequences.