When Francois Hollande defeated the exuberant incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy for the French presidency last year, many in France saw this as a victory for normalcy, as well as a long awaited swing back to the left. Unfortunately, Hollande's first year in office has been particularly troubled. His weak position with French voters was on display this week, as Sarkozy let it be known that he would be willing to re-enter politics in order to save his country.
Referring to Hollande as "really useless," Sarkozy believes that France is headed towards a "social explosion" unless serious changes are made. These revealing insights hit newsstands this week when a Parisian newspaper published an article about Sarkozy's life since leaving the Elysee Palace. Friends of the former president indicated that he would be willing to return to national office, if and when necessary.
Hollande was meant to be a refreshing change of pace from his frenetic predecessor, who had a tendency to micro-manage, while at the same time enjoying a "bling-bling" lifestyle with his supermodel wife Carla Bruni. Unfortunately, rising unemployment and scandal within Hollande's cabinet has seen his popularity drop.
Where Sarkozy was seen as heavy-handed and controlling, Hollande appears to be unable to control his own government. To many French, boring and workman-like Hollande seems to lack both the leadership skills and the vision necessary to govern a country with as many challenges and complexities as France possesses.
Hollande's unilateral attack on the rich, by raising taxes significantly on high earners, failed to earn him lasting friends or allies. Now, even parts of the left-wing press are abandoning him. Embarrassingly, he was forced to fire his budget minister, Jerome Cahuzac, when accusations were made that Cahuzac illegally held money in a Swiss bank account. This was particularly awkward for Hollande since Cahuzac had special responsibility for pursuing tax avoiders.
Many observers make the claim that this boring, poorly dressed bureaucrat is as unable to manage his home life as his is unable to manage his country. Tabloids continue to feast on stories of his current girlfriend, Valerie Trierweiler, and her fits of jealously in the face of Segolene Royal, with whom Hollande had a lengthy relationship and four children. This situation makes Hollande's political life even more awkward, as Royal is a senior figure in the Socialist Party who previously ran against Sarkozy for the presidency in 2007.
As Hollande continues to stumble in the polls, he may need to eventually rely on Royal, despite the bad blood between them, in order to prop up his wobbly government. Such an act would be seen as a clear admission of failure, both personal and political.
The path to a triumphant return to the Elysee Palace, however, will not be an easy one for Sarkozy.
Unrest in the Socialist Party and mounting French disappointment in Hollande will not be enough, in themselves, to give Sarkozy another chance at power. His political party, the Union for a Popular Movement, has been ineffective in opposition. Two separate investigations are progressing against him as well. One involves a tabloid-friendly accusation that he exploited the senile billionaire heiress to the L'Oreal fortune, Liliane Bettencourt, in order to obtain funding for his 2007 presidential run. The other involves a payment of approximately $500,000 made to him in 2008 by none other than Muammar Gaddafi, the former ruler of Libya.
The "Bettencourt scandal" has developed a life of its own since the 90 year old heiress was put under court protection last year. Seventeen people have so far been charged with "abuse of weakness" by the team of magistrates leading the inquiry. Sarkozy could face three years in prison, if convicted
The 2017 elections are still some time away, but these accusations weaken the man who is seen by his supporters as the candidate best placed to deny Hollande a second term. Of course, former French presidents are no stranger to post-retirement criminal charges. Jacques Chirac, the center-right President who preceded Sarkozy, was ultimately convicted of corruption in 2011 and given a suspended sentence of two-years.
Partisan political machinations aside, France faces massive problems that at times can seem insurmountable. Its economy is sputtering and government debt is now over 90% of GDP. Unemployment sits at a dizzying 10.8%, the highest in over 15 years. Young people are fleeing France for opportunity elsewhere, like nearby London.
Hollande is now wrestling with the fact that he won the last election solely on the basis that he was not Nicolas Sarkozy. Having brought with him no concrete policy initiatives or comprehensive governing philosophy, Hollande is now adrift.
As a result, French voters are increasingly drifting away from him as they recognize more and more that their leader seems incapable of actually leading.