China is witnessing a growing number of public protests and violent demonstrations, at the same time as a generational transition rapidly approaches within the ruling class of the Chinese Communist Party. Chinese provincial governments are deploying security forces to enforce their rule and demonstrate their continued authority.
Although such protests in the past mainly occurred in rural areas, and often involved members of China's ethnic minorities, violence has now arisen in cities and among the ethnic majority Han. These protests are much harder for national political leaders, and the international media, to ignore. So far, they do not appear to be centrally coordinated or part of a single, orchestrated campaign, but this could change over time, as has been seen in the Arab Spring protests across the Middle East and North Africa.
Are we witnessing the collapse of the Chinese model for growth and stability that has directed the country for three decades?
Perhaps the Communist Party's greatest fear is that these disconnected acts of internal protest will eventually coalesce into a single movement that directly challenges the party.
Next year, the national leadership posts will be reshuffled. President Hu Jintao, who attempted to establish his vision of a "harmonious society" in China, will retire. A younger generation of leaders will step to the forefront. The image of police launching tear gas and pushing back large numbers of migrant workers, who have been the biggest driver of China's economic development, will not necessarily be conducive to a smooth transition of power.
An escalation from smashed windows to throwing bricks at police to burning government buildings could make many important decision-makers very uncomfortable. It is unclear to what extent over-reaction by local Chinese officials, who have mostly relied on heavy-handed police responses to quell the unrest, has been driven by a failure by Beijing to craft a nationwide response to mounting concern over corruption, arbitrary rule, abuse of privileges and coercion.
The constant stream of video recounting the rapid spread of the Arab Spring must make for nervous viewing in Beijing's halls of power. Evidently, even the Chinese government's well-reported efforts at "social management" of their citizenry has its own natural limits. In the era of widespread participation in social media, such as Facebook and Twitter, official efforts to further restrict Internet activities may perhaps be producing only diminishing returns.
To date, Chinese protesters have not overtly linked their actions to the Arab Spring uprisings, but the analogies would not be difficult to draw. Protests that start around incidents of strictly local interest can turn into nationwide uprisings, as was originally the case with Mohammed Bouazizi, the fruit seller in Tunisia who set himself on fire in December after being attacked by police.
Unfortunately for Chinese leaders, in addition to these internal tensions, their country is surrounded by a number of complex external challenges to its continued growth and stability. For example, China needs food. The need to secure an adequate food supply has driven China to invest significant sums in Latin American countries, such as Argentina, to purchase and develop agricultural properties. However, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez is hoping to pass a law that will limit Chinese investment in her country's bountiful farmlands.
Also, China needs more energy. To obtain energy independence, the government has decided to continue its nuclear power development program, despite the recent crisis in Japan. The continuing appetite of Chinese companies and citizens for more power ultimately won the day, despite the location of many sites near high-risk areas, such as coastlines and large population centers, and international concerns over safety.
The next generation of Chinese leaders must attempt to solve these vexing problems, while also addressing the violent uprisings by growing numbers of their citizens, for whom the lingering memories of Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989, may not have faded.
The Chinese model has its admirers in the West, and such positive observations have been particularly poignant in the past few years when so many Western economies have been mercilessly whiplashed by the global financial crisis. Apparently, though, decades of economic growth, and the required political compromises, may not be enough to keep China moving forward. Situations change. And when they do, political leaders must recognize these changes and adapt, or they will face popular challenges, as with the Arab Spring.
But the Arab Spring has also raised unanswered questions over whether what follows a toppled government will actually be better, in the long run, than the former regime.
July 1 marks the 90th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, the world's largest political party. It will be important for its next generation of leaders to determine which way history is heading, and which side they should be on. And it will be equally important for the rest of the world to watch these unfolding developments very closely.
An Arab Spring erupting on a Chinese scale would be a truly earth-shattering event.