China began a new charm offensive in Britain this week. Prime Minister Wen Jibao filled his travel diary with a wide selection of events, including visits with his British counterpart, David Cameron, as well as sightseeing trips to home of William Shakespeare and the historic factory that produced the iconic MG sports cars, which a Shanghai-based company now owns.
Wen's country has amassed a large cash surplus in recent years, which it now wants to put to work. Like the so-called "robber barons" in late 19th century America, Wen and his Cabinet colleagues are now surveying the European landscape at the beginning of the 21st century as a place to invest the returns of their economic success. However, the Chinese appear more focused on cementing recent gains in their standards of living by ensuring adequate technology transfer and global market access, rather than merely picking up a choice selection of art to decorate their summer mansions.
And just to show that their hearts are in the right place, the Chinese government has announced its support for the euro, Europe's forlorn single currency, as its legitimacy and livelihood continues to be threatened by the ongoing Greek debt crisis.
As Washington insiders observe the steady progress of China as a leading light among the community of nations, what lessons should they draw? What influence can American leaders hope to exert on China during this historic period of its return to the top tier of global civilizations?
The Obama administration has made clear its priority to engage with China on a realistic basis. As Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stressed during her first visit to China, issues of global importance, such as the economy and national security, must naturally take precedence over other issues, such as human rights.
But a lower level of priority does not necessarily mean that such issues are ignored and forgotten.
Interestingly, in an attempt to maximize the public relations benefits of Wen's European visit, China released from jail two high-profile dissidents – contemporary artist Ai Weiwei and political protester Hua Jia. Clearly, the Chinese leadership reads the newspapers of record and watches a fair share of cable news. And as a result, they have shown themselves to be open to influence.
Importantly, China today is not a uniformly happy place. More than 100 Internet activists remain in custody, as well as dozens of human-rights campaigners. China is engaging in its most severe clampdown on free speech and political expression since the days of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. Reportedly, over 100,000 protests and riots occurred within China last year, and some Chinese leaders are increasing concerned that widespread popular unrest may be on the horizon.
How useful is it to begin to discuss a possible Beijing Spring? Could Western observers again be caught by surprise just as they were by the outbreak six months ago of anti-government protests and resulting regime changes in parts of the Muslim world – the Arab Spring?
Clearly, the Middle Eastern and North African countries where revolts have occurred are distinct, and that entire region differs substantially, both in the present and across recent history, from China. But one potentially interesting comparison can be made – with Syria.
Syria, an introverted single-party state ruled with a firm hand by a small minority group that has worked relatively deftly to maintain peace among a number of ethnic and religious factions, could offer clues about how a Beijing Spring might unfold.
Despite continued bloodshed and little progress by the Syrian government to gain the trust of protesters, more than 100 dissidents met this week in the capital of Damascus in another attempt to shift the country away from escalating violence and toward some form of peaceful transition. Unfortunately, as Syrian security forces ratcheted up their attacks on protesters, and as thousands of Syrian refugees flooded into their northern neighbor, Turkey, the government line remained that no military crackdown was actually occurring.
Now, take Syria, and add about another 1.3 billion people to the mix. And make it one of the most important global economies for at least the rest of this century and perhaps longer.
Are our leaders ready for such a paradigm-shifting development?
Twenty years ago, when we were caught unaware by the collapse of the Soviet Union, what was perhaps most noticeable was the lack of large-scale collateral damage. One day, the Soviet Union was replaced by Russia, and then we all went on our merry way.
With a Beijing Spring, however, the process could be much more unpredictable, and much more prolonged, than the demise of the Soviet Union. Or even what we are witnessing now in the Middle East and North Africa.
The consequences of a Beijing Spring could be vast. We must not be caught by surprise.